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Conservation Decision-Making at the Limits of Prediction

Mathematical Biology

Speaker: Carl Boettiger
Location: MSB 2112
Start time: Mon, Feb 6 2023, 4:10PM

Forecasting the behavior of complex systems is not merely a hard problem, but often impossible. This is because numerical models are not unique. Moreover, the model that provides the greatest predictive accuracy is not necessarily the model that yields the best decision. How then, do we make decisions in a complex and uncertain world? I will draw upon simple examples and recent advances in decision theory & optimal control, including POMDP methods and deep reinforcement learning, to illustrate a way forward at the limits of prediction.

Zoom info: password: mathbio